Are Democrats Better Off With A Smaller Majority In The Senate?

In the current US Senate, the majority usually needs 60 votes to pass a bill, for institutional reasons. The Democrats basically had 60 senators starting the 111th Congress in 2009. The election of Scott Brown in February 2010 to fill the seat of late-Senator Ted Kennedy lowered this number to 59 members, and started a debate on whether Democrats would be able to pass their bills, in particular health-care reform. After the midterm elections of 2010, Democrats are holding a 52 seats majority. The majority needs to reach across the aisle to pass legislation. I argue, using a theoretical model, that the majority party might be able to attract more senators from across the aisle when they have a smaller majority. The simple idea is that the majority is trying to attract centrist opponents from a larger pool, and that mass defection might be less costly for a minority member than a lonely one. ∗[email protected]